Alavés vs Málaga: Inside the La Liga Basement Battle
The Stakes at Mendizorrotza
When Alavés and Málaga kick off at Mendizorrotza on 23 October 2026, the La Liga table will tell a grim story. Both sides are entrenched in the relegation zone, and a defeat here could spell early-season doom. For Filipino bettors, this is the kind of match where form goes out the window and desperation takes over. The home side, Alavés, are winless in their last five (LLDLL), while Málaga arrive with an equally worrying DDLLD record. The bookmakers have installed Alavés as -170 favourites, but that price looks short given their recent struggles.
Mendizorrotza has traditionally been a fortress for Alavés, but this season it has been anything but. The Basque outfit have picked up just one point from their last three home games, scoring only twice. Málaga, on the other hand, have shown more resilience on the road, drawing two of their last three away matches. The odds of -170 for the home win imply a 63% probability, which seems generous considering Alavés have won just once in their last ten league outings. The draw is priced at +240, and Málaga are available at +450. The over/under line is set at 2.5 goals, with the under favoured at -120.
| Info | Detail |
|---|---|
| Competition | La Liga |
| Kick-off | 03:00 24/10/2026 (GMT+8) |
| Venue | Mendizorrotza |
| Alavés form | LLDLL |
| Málaga form | DDLLD |
| Reference odds | ALA -170 (1.59) |
| Over/Under | 2.5 |
Form Guide: Two Sides in Freefall
Alavés’ LLDLL run includes a 2-0 loss to Real Sociedad and a 1-1 draw with Getafe, where they conceded late. Their defensive record is alarming: 12 goals conceded in their last five, an average of 2.4 per game. The attack has been equally toothless, managing just four goals in that span. Manager Luis García Plaza is under immense pressure, and reports from Vitoria suggest he has two games to save his job. The dressing room is tense, with senior players questioning the tactical approach.
Málaga’s DDLLD sequence is a mirror image of ineptitude. They drew 0-0 with Cádiz and 1-1 with Elche, but lost 3-1 to Villarreal and 2-0 to Real Betis. The Andalusians have scored only three goals in their last five, and their away form is particularly concerning: no wins in their last six on the road. Coach Sergio Pellicer has tried various formations, but nothing has clicked. The lack of a proven striker is glaring, with their top scorer netting just twice all season.
“Both teams are playing with fear,” a La Liga scout told Puso Picks. “The quality is low, and mistakes will decide this one.”
The table below shows the head-to-head record, which is tightly contested. Alavés have won two of the last five meetings, with Málaga winning one and two draws. The goals have been scarce, with under 2.5 goals in four of those five encounters.
Betting Angles and Market Moves
The -170 for Alavés is based purely on home advantage, not form. Sharp bettors have been quick to oppose the home side, and the price has drifted from -150 to -170, indicating money on Málaga and the draw. The Asian handicap line is Alavés -0.5 at -110, which is more appealing than the outright win. For those looking for value, the draw at +240 stands out, especially given both teams’ tendency to cancel each other out.
The over/under market is intriguing. With both attacks misfiring, under 2.5 goals at -120 is the smart play. In Alavés’ last five, four have gone under 2.5, and the same is true for Málaga in three of their last five. The first half under 1.5 goals is priced at -130, which also appeals.
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The Verdict: Back the Draw
This is a match between two teams desperate not to lose. Alavés will push forward early, but their confidence is shot. Málaga will sit deep and counter. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw, with a 1-1 or 0-0 scoreline on the cards. The draw at +240 is the standout bet, and under 2.5 goals at -120 is a solid alternative. For those who prefer a safer route, the double chance Málaga or draw at +130 is a prudent choice.
As always, bet responsibly and only with licensed operators. Puso Picks recommends setting a budget and sticking to it. The kickoff is at 19:00 UTC, which is 3:00 AM Philippine time on 24 October. Set your alarms, and may the odds be ever in your favour.